NewsTeller #031 - May 2023

05 May
2023

MARKET STATUS

The GDP surpassed the forecast for the 1st quarter of 2023, the economy grew 1.6% compared to the last quarter and 2.5% year-on-year. The increase in external demand motivated this good performance, with the acceleration of exports of goods and services and the continued moderation of imports. The INE's economic climate indicators and the European Commission's (EC) economic sentiment indicators maintained their upward trend in April. INE's economic climate indicators show improvements in the construction and services sectors. In industry, the sentiment worsened due to a greater uncertainty regarding the evolution of production in the upcoming months. Consumers are more confident, which results from the perspective regarding the downward trend in prices and less uncertainty regarding the household's financial situation, ie; they are “figuring out what they can count on”. It should be noted that the consumer confidence indicator rose for the 5th consecutive month, reaching the highest value since May last year.

Contributing to this good performance is also the tourism. In the 1st quarter of 2023, overnight stays exceeded the same pre-pandemic period by 14.1%, with growth compared to the 1st quarter of 2019 in overnight stays from residents 19.6% and from non residents 11.8%.

Inflation had a strong slowdown in April, from 7.4% to 5.7%, it’s the sixth consecutive decline, accentuating its downward path. The decrease in the price of energy has contributed to this, as well as the deceleration of inflation in food products, the effects of the 0% VAT on food will have an impact on the inflation data for the month of May.

The Eurozone economy avoided a contraction in the 1st quarter of 2023, observing the preliminary data, the Eurozone grew 0.1%, after a null growth of 0.0% at the end of 2022.

Uncertainties about the strength of the economic cycle continue to hold back investors, who are less willing to take risks. Sovereign debt yields, both in shorter and longer maturities, fell in the US and also in Europe. Preliminary GDP growth data for the 1st quarter in the US were not as expected and showed signs of persistent inflationary pressures.

The ECB and the FED, pursue their monetary policies at a time when economic activity is “cooling down” less than expected, inflation which despite some signs of decline still remains high and a more volatile financial environment (JPMorgan Chase Bank took over all of First Republic Bank's deposits and most of its assets after the bank's colapse). Against this backdrop, the ECB raised rates again, at a slower pace of 0.25%, in the same vein the FED also raised interest rates by 0.25% for the 5.00%-5.25% range. However, the idea remains that the Fed will not promote new increases, unlike the ECB, with more “soft” increases expected to be made until 4.25% is reached. Therefore, in the 3rd quarter of 2023 the interest rate might be higher than the inflation rate.

Sources: INE, BdP, BPI research, Lusa, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DEVELOPED ACTIVITIES

i. Current Management

PROJETOS	ACONTECIMENTOS
S. VICENTE 1	In April, the gross income resulted in a turnover of 6 788,10€, which corresponds to a growth of 78,62% when compared to the same period in 2022. The occupancy rate rose from 56,2% in 2022 to 81,8% in 2023. The annual rate of change for this month is 45,6%.
EÇA QUEIROZ 26	Property up for sale, having been carried out some visits to the property by potential buyers.
BECO DO QUINQUILHEIRO	New interested parties continue to emerge and negotiations are ongoing. Former interested parties have reactivated their interest. We continue to await the inspection by CM Sesimbra which has shown interest in acquiring the properties.
COSTA CALIDA 14	The property has already had visits and a proposal that did not meet the intended value.
RAMADA 3	The promissory purchase agreement is scheduled. The deed is expeced to be in July.
QUINTA DA AMIZADE	All documentation is with the responsible architect, the dispatch of the PIP should take place soon. Potential buyers are still interested, waiting for the PIP to be deferred.
ALMADA HISTÓRICA	The elements elaborated according to what resulted in the meeting with the town hall’s architect, have already been delivered. We’re waiting for the approval by the CM Almada.
CASTELO 84	There is a small delay in the licensing process. It was agreed to extend the project's term, without compromising its profitability.
SETÚBAL_ARRÁBIDA	The request to change the usage permit continue under analysis at CM Setúbal. There were some inquiries about the property.
NÁUTICO	We continue to negotiate with potential interested parties regarding the property sale.
PORTAS DO MONTIJO	Project running on schedule.
BRITO CAPELO 28	Project running on schedule.
VINHA DA ENCARNAÇÃO	Project running on schedule.
EGAS MONIZ	Project 100% subscribed, the membership’s agreements in participation will be sent to the subscribing members in order to start managing the project.

ii. ACHIEVEMENTS

Another project was closed: Mira Guincho

Mira Guincho

Capital 216.215€ | 22 Membros

Achieved	19 Months	15,65% IRR Project	11,33% IRR Annual
Projected	12 Months	10,52% IRR Project	10,52% IRR Annual

iii. Improvements and Evolutions

IMPROVEMENTS	Fixed issue that caused a wrong link to be sent via email when a project’s document was uploaded; With the introduction of filtering in the catalog, the list of opportunities wasn’t fully displaying all projects. This has been resolved; A bug was fixed that could cause na unexpected error while using “Forgot Password” feature.
EVOLUTIONS	Nothing to add

MONTH'S SCHEDULE

May 2023

FORTNIGHT	EVENT
1st	Nothing to add
2nd	Launch of a new project for subscription by the members